Much like Gordon Moore’s chart that predicted chip performance, this Deutsche Bank chart and reflects Wall Street’s predictions for solar/electricity costs.
There are about 80 known solar manufactures, all scurrying to increase capacity and drive down cost. Plus, who knows how many stealth mode solar manufactures are coming on-line in China? Costs will keep dropping.
It reminds me of the hard-drive, processor and memory chip industry in the mid 1980s.
The big question is this: if there is a global credit crunch, as some predict, how will it impact the dissemination of solar panels? Solar ROI is directly tied to cost of capital.
If credit dries up, grid party will get pushed out and deployment will be slow.
If credit is free flowing, the force of capitalism will deploy solar on every available business roof.
In August of 1858 Edwin Drake proved what I call “oil parity”, the point at which it was cheaper to drill than hunt for whales. Wall Street sprang into action and rammed money down the throat of the opportunity. By August of 1859 there were “oil wells as far as the eye could see in Titusville.”
Moore:
Drake:
Moore's Law:
CPU and DRAM charts:
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