In 1909 about 50% of the work force was involved in agriculture, today its about 5%, yet we don't have 45% unemployment, because capitalism is great a retooling underutilized resources. In the 1900s Many of those farm jobs went to the Steel Mills. Ironically, 100 years later, in Japan, the steel jobs are retooling to farming. This BBC video explains.
In Mike Nichols’ 1967 classic “The Graduate”, Dustin Hoffman’s character gets “just one word” of advice: “plastics.” It was a sign of the times; the groundbreaking technology was changing everything from consumer goods to space equipment.
Today, a new generation of materials is looking to graduate to the status of plastic. The problem with plastic is its lifecycle. Plastic production is dependent on oil; therefore, the supply chain is susceptible to the vulgarities of economics and geopolitics. Plastic disposal often involves landfills, which come at an astounding expense. The race is on for a greener, cheaper, and more profitable alternative. Scientific drama will unfold, fortunes will be made and lost, and in the end, plastic will take its place among lead, iron and slate as just another material. Algae-based, fungal-based, mineral-based and cellulosic alternative are all in the race.
Paper byproduct Arboform looks like plastic and even employs injection-molding - just like plastic.
The final product can resemble highly polished wood or have a more matted finish and look like the plastic used in most household items.
The transition from Plastic is a saga worth watching, I look forward to the next “New New”.
Note: Greensulate also looks promising.
Looks like Dogbert also expounds the benefit of portfolio diversification.
Last week I blogged about falling solar panel costs. Several readers theorized offline that the economic downturn might slow production and lead to further panel shortages, thus raising costs and slowing adoption. Good news. This morning my friend in the semiconductor industry forwarded me this iSuppli study indicating that prices are expected to fall a record 20% in 2009.
“In 2009, average prices for panels for new installation contracts will collapse to the US$2.50 to US$2.75 per watt range by the end of 2009, down from the current level of US$4.20 per watt. – iSuppli”
In addition to the advances in solar electric production, we are also seeing advances in power storage, including nano-capacitors.
All this activity further validates my underling theory: we have seen this game before (CPUs, Memory, and Storage). The solar game is just like the computer hardware game, and the winners will be businesses and consumers.
So I ask… who are the Robert Noyce, Gordon Moore, Andy Grove, Steve Jobs and Jack Simplot of solar?
also related: Wall Street and Solar
